Prognostications for 2024
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Hello readers. It’s time for prognostications and predictions for 2024. I’m trying to be negative, it just appears to have worked out that way.
Simultaneous Sucking and Blowing
There will continue to be releases of new models of existing products with one or two new features that most will never actually use in the hope of generating cash flow for the makers.
Smart buyers will continue to learn that new glass is not necessarily better than what they already own, so mount adapter sales will increase while the pundits lose what little minds that they have.
Buyers will continue to ignore science and buy flimsy and useless tripods.
Makers will continue to expand the video capabilities of their cameras. 98% of buyers will never do any video at all because they have not learned why they might want to shoot video.
Pictures taken with smartphones will increase in volume as it is the perfect snapshot camera. What point and shoots that remain will be relegated to the cannot sell at any price counter.
Photographs made with interchangeable lens cameras will decrease in volume, because of a lack of demand to make photographs and an increased tendency to be satisfied with snapshots
Software products will continue to leverage complex probability models, labeled as AI, as a means to generate subscription or add on revenue. This will be successful as those who do edit become increasingly lazy and care less about their craft and more about how much dreck they can post to Instagram.
Film photography will fall off again, as users will discover that it is more expensive, and more work, for less dynamic range and a lower success rate, and that their friends and family care less if the film shooter thinks he or she is cool.
The next run of sensors will reengage the megapixel chase because it fooled so many people the last couple of times it was run. This will sell new cameras and deliver no improvements in photography.
The cost of printing papers and inks will increase as demand slows as fewer and fewer people make prints.
Users still will choose not to understand the science of resolution and spend tons of money on gear in the hope that their pictures will look better on all the low resolution displays in use globally.
Users will continue to think that new gear, new software and training on how to use the new stuff will result in better pictures. Never has, never will.
Makers will avoid changing card formats supported in their products as standardization becomes demands from governments. New products will all use the USB-C interface instead of the myriad collection of incompatible cables required today. However, the significantly improved bandwidth of USB-C will not be implemented in most products because of the requirements to upgrade the data channels in everything.
Adobe will continue to enhance Adobe Lightroom while letting Lightroom Classic stagnate in preparation for a consolidation to come in 2025 into a single product. Users hoping for a performance and scalability jump in the LrC catalog model will not see one because Adobe wants to get out of the catalog part of the business.
More companies will move from perpetual licensing to subscription models because it changes positively how they recognize revenue. Customers will not see significant benefits from these changes and will continue to grow frustrated and annoyed with the monthly pocket picking.
AI will continue to destroy individual creativity leading to a muck hole where everything looks the same. Real artists will choose not to use AI tools but will be a micro minority.
Politics and a rush to mediocrity will continue to negatively impact photography as an art form. Social media will continue to lower the bar as to what is good.
Put A Ribbon on It
Things don’t have to be this way. You can change your own experience and joy by learning to ignore the marketing machines. Focus on your own desires, and your own goals. Instead of spending money on gear that does not matter, learn to use what you already own. Go to places where you can stand or sit or lie in front of interesting subjects and stories. Learn to write a story with your images, and stop pressing the shutter on stuff you already have hundreds / thousands of pictures of. Work to get it right in camera. Become a human light meter. Learn to see dynamic range by learning how to PROPERLY use a spot meter and to see what part of what is in front of you has the luminosity of middle grey.
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